A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
